GTA Real Estate Market Watch September 2026: the traditional fall rebound never arrived. The homes came back to the market, but the buyers did not.
GTA home sales totalled 5,040 in September, down 9% year-over-year and even a few dozen fewer than in August, typically a slow summer month. Meanwhile, new listings jumped to 16,500, up 37% from August, pushing months of inventory from 4.8 to 5.2 months. Even more telling, a new survey by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and Ipsos found that only 22% of respondents are likely to buy a home in the next year, the lowest level in 10 years. Where did the buyers go, and who is still in the market? Let’s break down the data.
GTA Real Estate Market Watch September 2026 Data
Source: TRREB Market Watch
🍂 No Fall Rebound: Fewer Sales Than August, Prices Back Above $1M but Still Down Year-Over-Year
Many people expect buyers to return automatically once summer is over. September’s numbers do not support that assumption:
- Sales Fell Instead of Rising: 5,040 homes sold across the GTA in September, down 9% from a year earlier and slightly below the summer-slowdown month of August.
- Average Price Back Above $1 Million: The average selling price returned to $1,006,409, up roughly $13,000 from August’s $993,000. Year-over-year, however, prices are still down 5.1%, or about $54,000 per home.
📦 Sellers Are Back, Buyers Are Not: Inventory Climbs to 5.2 Months
Fall brought a clear increase in sellers, but buyers did not keep pace:
- New Listings Surge: New listings rose to 16,500 in September, up 37% from August, and active listings climbed back to about 26,000.
- Inventory Jumps: With more sellers and no matching increase in buyers, months of inventory rose from 4.8 months in August to 5.2 months. The buyer’s market is not ending; it is deepening.
- Why Buyers Are Waiting: Concerns about inflation and future interest rate moves may be keeping some buyers on the sidelines.
📉 Buying Intent at a 10-Year Low: Only 22% Plan to Buy in the Next Year
So who is still in the market? The latest TRREB and Ipsos survey offers an answer:
- Record-Low Buying Intent: Among a broad base of respondents, only 22% said they are likely to buy a home in the next year, the lowest on record for this survey and the lowest in 10 years.
- More People, Fewer Intending Buyers: This stands in sharp contrast to the GTA’s record population growth in recent years.
- First-Time Buyers Dominate: Among those planning to buy a home to live in, 45% are first-time buyers, the second-highest share in 18 years.
In other words, the buyer pool is not only shrinking, but those who remain are increasingly first-time, end-user buyers. Move-up and downsizing households, who can choose whether or not to move, are postponing their plans and leaving the market even faster.
🏠 Demand Has Not Disappeared: More Households Are Renting and Waiting
Aggressive immigration policy in the late stage of the pandemic brought a large wave of newcomers to the GTA, creating a big pool of potential housing demand. Total transactions, rentals and sales combined, have kept rising. Yet home sales have been falling in recent years.
- Rent First, Decide Later: Many potential first-time buyers and newcomer families are choosing to rent and wait until the economy, jobs, interest rates and their own income are more certain before deciding whether to buy.
- Sales Losing Ground: Rentals make up a growing share of total transactions every year, while home sales are shrinking both as a share and in absolute numbers.
🔍 Market Outlook: Strong Underlying Demand, Historically Few Active Buyers
The result is a contradictory market: potential housing demand is far from small, yet the number of people willing to actually buy is at a historic low. In September, sellers returned to the GTA real estate market. The question now is when these renting-and-waiting households will regain the confidence to buy.
📍 I am Pris Han, the GTA realtor, for all your first-time moves.
Published on: 2026-10-09
Read More:
GTA Real Estate Market Watch July 2026：Spring Gains Erased—Which Property Type Is Holding Up Better?
GTA Real Estate Market Watch June 2026：Toronto Housing Market Reversal is Just One Step Away
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