In October 2025, the average home price in the GTA Real Estate stood at $1.05 million, representing a modest month-over-month decline of only $5,000 (-0.5%). Despite entering the traditional winter slowdown, prices remained relatively stable, indicating that downward pressure in the market is gradually easing and overall price resilience has strengthened.
This trend reflects increasingly stabilized expectations among buyers and sellers. Sellers are no longer in a rush to lower prices, while some previously hesitant buyers are beginning to re-enter the market, creating a more balanced dynamic between supply and demand.
⏳ Consecutive Rate Cuts Signal Easing and Boost Market Activity
Following the rate cut earlier this year, the Bank of Canada implemented two consecutive reductions in September and October, lowering the benchmark interest rate further to 2.25%. This move is widely interpreted as a policy response to economic slowdown.
Although prices have yet to show a significant rebound, market activity has improved materially. The combination of rising transaction volumes and declining inventory typically signals that the market may be stabilizing at its bottom range.
📈 Rising Transactions + Contracting Supply → Significant Inventory Decline
- October Transactions: 6,100 units, representing an approximate 10% month-over-month increase, a notable rise compared to September.
- New Listings: Fell to 16,000 units, down roughly 3,000 units from the previous month.
- Active Listings: Decreased from nearly 29,500 units in September to under 28,000 units.
- Inventory Level: Dropped sharply from 5.3 months to 4.5 months, marking the lowest level in 2025.
This series of data points indicates that buyers are accelerating their pace of market entry while supply is simultaneously contracting. The resulting imbalance between supply and demand has caused inventories to decline rapidly, bringing the market back toward a relatively tight equilibrium. If this trend continues, it could provide a degree of price support in the post-winter period.
📈 Market Circulation Improves, Buyer Confidence Rebounds
The average listing period decreased slightly from 51 days in September to 50 days in October. While the change may appear minor, it represents the first instance this year of a shortening listing cycle, indicating an improvement in market turnover and suggesting that some buyers are accelerating their decision-making following interest rate cuts.
A reduction in listing duration is often an early signal of market revitalization. Although it does not necessarily translate into immediate price increases, it reflects a return of transactional confidence.
🔍 Ten-Year Review: The Market Has Largely Completed Its Deep Adjustment
From the 2015–2025 trend chart of GTA home prices and monthly transaction volumes, prices have declined from the 2022 peak of $1.34 million to the current $1.05 million, representing an overall drop of over 20%. However, the majority of this decline occurred during the first six months of the 2022 interest rate hike cycle.
Over the past nearly two years, prices have largely fluctuated within a narrow range around $1.10 million ± $30,000, indicating an extended period of market consolidation.
This indicates that:
✔ After two years of adjustment, home prices have undergone a deep market correction;
✔ Given the backdrop of falling interest rates and declining inventory, the likelihood of another steep price drop is low;
✔ Buyers still waiting for a “bottom-fishing” opportunity may be missing the most cost-effective entry window.
Overall, the psychological impact of consecutive rate cuts is gradually taking effect. While current home prices remain within a consolidation range, clearer market signals suggest that the winter of 2025 could become a key turning point, shifting the market from “cautious observation” toward gradual recovery.
Published on: 2025-11-06
Read More:
GTA Real Estate Market Watch September 2025
GTA Real Estate Market Watch August 2025
GTA Real Estate Market Watch July 2025
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