In December 2025, the GTA Real Estate Market moved further downward: home prices returned to pre-pandemic levels, while transaction volume fell to a 25-year low, pushing the market into a state of extreme suppression.The chill is no longer just sentiment—it is now fully reflected in the data. Prices continue to lose support, transactions are close to freezing, yet panic selling has not emerged.
📉 Prices Hit New Lows: Back to Pre-Pandemic Levels
Average price: $1,006,735
After several consecutive months of decline, December’s average sale price fell again, officially settling just above the $1 million mark.
Viewed on a longer-term price curve, this level roughly corresponds to late 2020 to early 2021—indicating that nearly all of the price premium accumulated during the pandemic years has now been fully absorbed by the market.
This is not a one-month fluctuation, but a clear signal:
👉 GTA home prices have broadly returned to pre-pandemic fundamentals.
📦 Sales Volume Bottoms Out: Back to 25 Years Ago
Transactions: 3,697 units
This figure not only represents a sharp drop from November’s 5,000 sales, but is also nearly 9% lower year-over-year, confirming that the decline is not merely seasonal.
More importantly:
Total sales for all of 2025 reached approximately 62,000 units, marking the lowest annual transaction volume in the GTA in nearly 25 years, comparable to levels seen in the early 2000s.
📊 However, context matters—
In 2000, the GTA population was roughly 4.8 million.
Today, it is close to 7 million, an increase of over 40%.
👉 With population growth accelerating while transaction volume has reverted to 25-year-old levels, this does not suggest that demand has disappeared. Rather, real housing demand has been suppressed and postponed.
📅 Listings Also Contract, Inventory Declines—But Not Due to Recovery
New listings: approximately 5,300 units, nearly half of November’s level and broadly in line with last year
Months of inventory: 4.6 months, slightly lower month-over-month
It is critical to note:
The decline in inventory does not signal a rebound in demand, but rather reflects the typical seasonal withdrawal of listings in December. Sellers are choosing to wait rather than capitulate, pushing the market into a passive stalemate.
💡 Days on Market Lengthen Sharply: Liquidity Severely Constrained
Average days on market: 65 days
This is not only 9 days longer than the previous month, but also significantly above last year’s 55-day average.
Based on long-term monthly reporting experience, an average selling period exceeding two months is extremely rare, clearly indicating that:
👉 Homes have become very difficult to sell, and market liquidity is severely impaired.
🏦 Rates Have Fallen—Why Is the Market Still Frozen?
Even though the benchmark interest rate has fallen from above 5% to 2.25%, buyers remain hesitant.
The reason is straightforward—and sobering:
👉 Uncertainty about the future economy now outweighs the stimulus of lower interest rates.
Job security, income expectations, and overall financial confidence have become more decisive factors than borrowing costs.
🔮 Looking Ahead to 2026: Neither a Rebound nor a Collapse
Based on all currently available data:
- 2026 does not have the foundation for a broad-based rebound;
- At the same time, there are no conditions in place for a renewed systemic decline.
What will ultimately determine whether the market can thaw is not a single variable, but whether the following conditions are met simultaneously:
- ✅ Inflation remains contained and does not reaccelerate;
- ✅ Employment conditions and household income expectations stabilize;
- ✅ Interest rates remain at current low levels or ease modestly further;
- ✅ No major new economic or geopolitical shocks emerge.
Until these conditions align, the more realistic—and more likely—scenario is:
👉 Prices fluctuate within a low-range band, transaction volumes recover slowly, and the market remains locked in a prolonged tug-of-war.
📌 Conclusion
The current market is not built for speculation.
Instead, it belongs to:
🔹 Buyers with genuine housing needs;
🔹 Households with stable incomes and long-term planning horizons;
🔹 Participants who understand where we are in the cycle, rather than chasing sentiment.
Published on: 2025-01-12
Read More:
GTA Real Estate Market Watch November 2025
GTA Real Estate Market Watch October 2025
GTA Real Estate Market Watch September 2025
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