GTA Real Estate Market Watch March 2025

GTA Real Estate Market More Listings, Fewer Sales:
A Market Caught Between Supply and Latent Demand

In March 2025, the Greater Toronto market failed to follow the typical spring trend of rising sales and prices, and instead continued to face pressure from high supply and low transaction volume, resulting in overall sluggish performance.

The GTA Real Estate Market remains in a delicate tug-of-war between suppressed buyer demand and increasing seller supply. Below is a breakdown of key indicators with a year-over-year perspective.

GTA Real Estate Key Market Highlights

📉 Home Sales: 5,011 Units (Down 23.1% YoY)
Compared to March 2024 (6,519 units), sales dropped significantly, continuing the low-volume trend we’ve seen for over two years. This decline isn’t just seasonal—it reflects a structural slowdown. Many would-be buyers, especially newcomers and first-time homebuyers, remain sidelined due to high borrowing costs.

📈 New Listings: 17,263 Units (Up 28.6% YoY)
New listings surged compared to the same time last year (13,425 units), as more homeowners—particularly investors and upgraders—test the market during the spring season. This sharp rise in listings indicates a growing urgency among sellers, especially as interest rate relief has yet to materialize.

🔺 Active Listings: 23,462 Units (Up 88.8% YoY)
This near-doubling of inventory is one of the most significant shifts this month. High inventory levels are a clear sign of a market moving deeper into buyer’s territory, with properties taking longer to sell and more competition among sellers.

💰 Average Selling Price: $1,093,254 (Down 2.5% YoY)
Despite weak sales and high inventory, average prices have only slipped slightly. This relative stability may be attributed to a higher proportion of sales in the detached and semi-detached segments, or seller reluctance to reduce prices. However, if sales volume doesn’t rebound soon, downward pressure on prices may build.

⏳ Average Days on Market: 36 Days (Up 24.1% YoY)
Homes are sitting on the GTA Real Estate Market longer—an average of 36 days versus 29 last year—signaling slower decision-making from buyers and more negotiation leverage on their side.

🧭 Months of Inventory: 4.7 Months
Near 5-month inventory signals a strong buyer’s market, suggesting significant oversupply. Buyers have more choices—and more room to negotiate.

GTA Real Estate Market Outlook

⚖️ Supply vs. Demand – An Evolving Tug-of-War
Over the past few years, Canada’s high immigration number brought a steady influx of newcomers to the GTA. However, high interest rates have prevented many of them from purchasing homes. This is reflected in GTA’s transaction volume, which remains well below the 10-year average.

At the same time, seller activity has been strong. Monthly new listings frequently exceeded 18,000 in 2024, and March 2025 alone brought over 17,000 new listings. This divergence has created a unique dynamic: a growing pool of latent buyer demand being held back by financing constraints, facing off against a motivated wave of sellers hoping to exit or reposition.
This balance—or imbalance—between these two forces will determine the GTA Real Estate Market’s direction in the months ahead.

🌍 Macroeconomic Wild Card: Global Trade Tensions
Complicating matters further is the recent resurgence of global trade tensions sparked by the United States. If trade disruptions impact Canada’s broader economy, they could weaken consumer confidence and job security—further delaying housing decisions for many families.

🔮 Looking Ahead
As we enter the second quarter, the market is poised for potential change. If the Bank of Canada continues with interest rate cuts, it could trigger a wave of reactivation among currently sidelined buyers. On the other hand, if uncertainty persists, sellers may need to adjust expectations to align with today’s slower-moving market.
At Carefree Home Sold Realty, our team is here to help you navigate these shifts with data-backed strategy and real-world experience. Whether you’re planning to buy, sell, or just exploring your options, let’s talk about what makes the most sense for you in this evolving landscape.

Read More:

GTA Real Estate Market Watch February 2025

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