GTA Real Estate Market Watch October 2026: the market showed an interesting shift. Sales picked up, inventory shrank, and things felt a little more active. Buyers are coming back, sellers are stepping away. So how much further will downtown condos fall?
GTA home sales totalled 5,603 in October, a sharp 11% rebound from September but still 8% below last year. New listings dropped 14% month-over-month, and months of inventory fell from 5.2 to 4.5 months. This month, besides the overall numbers, we also take a separate look at C01 and C08, the two main downtown condo districts. The results are not what many people expect.
GTA Real Estate Market Watch October 2026 Data
Source: TRREB Market Watch
📈 Sales Up 11%: Not a Big Buyer Comeback, Just Less Cold Than September
- Sales: 5,603 homes sold across the GTA in October, up a sharp 11% from September but still down 8% from a year earlier.
- Average Price: The average selling price came in at $1,024,108, up 1.8% from September. Year-over-year, it is still 2.7% lower, or about $28,000 less per home.
- The Gap Is Narrowing: In September, the average price was down 5.1% year-over-year. In October, it was down only 2.7%, so the gap with last year’s prices is shrinking.
- HPI Benchmark Price: Setting aside the effect of the sales mix across property types and looking at the HPI benchmark price, which better reflects the true price trend, October prices were still 4.3% lower than a year ago.
📦 Sellers Step Away: New Listings Down 14%, Inventory Falls to 4.5 Months
- New Listings: 14,173 new listings came to market in October, down a sharp 14% from September.
- Active Listings: Homes for sale fell to about 25,000, roughly 4% fewer than in September.
- Months of Inventory: Sellers pulling back reduced supply, and with sales picking up, inventory dropped from 5.2 months last month to 4.5 months.
- Days on Market: Average days on market also improved slightly, from 51 days in September to 49 days.
So the most accurate summary of October is not “buyers are back in force,” but rather: 👉 a few buyers came back, and some sellers stepped away. It is still a buyer’s market, but buyers’ advantage has narrowed compared with last month.
🏙️ Downtown Condos “Dead Quiet”? Sales Are Actually Up 2.8% This Year
This month we also look at the downtown condo segment. Many people feel the condo market is “dead quiet,” but when I combine C01 and C08, the two main downtown condo districts, that is not what the numbers show:
- Year to Date: 3,408 units have sold downtown so far this year, compared with 3,316 over the same period last year. Sales are actually 2.8% higher than last year.
- The Full-Year Trend: This year ran modestly above last year in the first half, then modestly below from July to October. Overall, sales this year are roughly on par with last year.
So condo sales are indeed at a low level, but they have not shrunk any further compared with last year. The segment many see as the “hardest hit” is still seeing stable sales.
📉 Downtown Condo Prices: C01 Down 6.5%, C08 Holding Flat at a Low Level
So have prices crashed? Let’s look at the HPI benchmark price:
- C01 (west side of downtown): Continuing last year’s downward trend, the benchmark price fell from about $581,000 at the start of the year to $543,000, a drop of 6.5%, or about $38,000 per unit.
- C08 (east side of downtown): Although prices fell 8.5% last year, this year they have moved sideways at around $500,000, looking more like they are stabilizing at a low level.
Doesn’t this data look a little different from the stereotype that “downtown condos are in terrible shape, with both sales and prices collapsing”?
🔍 Market Outlook: Rate Hikes Resume Just as the Winter Slowdown Begins
Rate hikes resumed at the end of October, and the market is now heading into the slower winter season. Will the GTA real estate market drop sharply, or will it hold up through the winter as oil prices ease significantly and inflation is expected to fade? Let me know what you think in the comments.
📍 I am Pris Han, the GTA realtor, for all your first-time moves.
Published on: 2026-11-09
Read More:
GTA Real Estate Market Watch September 2026：Buying Intent Hits a 10-Year Low
GTA Real Estate Market Watch July 2026：Spring Gains Erased—Which Property Type Is Holding Up Better?
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